EIA reported that these policies target to reduce the natural gas-fired generation share in Japan’s power generation from 34% in 2022 to 20% by 2030. Japan in 2022 consumed less natural gas than in 2009, due to slower economic growth, less industrial demand, high international LNG prices, and continued improvements in energy efficiency. It expect the decline in natural gas consumption in the electric power sector to continue.
Japan’s LNG storage capacity exceeds average monthly consumption to meet peaks in seasonal demand. The balance between LNG imports, consumption, and inventory is closely monitored and continuously optimized because LNG gradually evaporates even under the most favorable ambient conditions during storage in cryogenic tanks.
Policies in Japan target reducing the share of coal in electric generation from 31% in 2022 to 19% by 2030 and the share of petroleum generation from 4% in 2022 to 2% by 2030. This target extends policies announced in 2020 to phase out old and inefficient coal units. The policies also focus on the rapid development of technologies aimed at reducing emissions from coal, including integrated-gasification combined-cycle infrastructure, carbon capture and sequestration, and fuel blending with ammonia and biomass to achieve higher operational efficiency of coal-fired plants.
Japan’s government announced that it intends to review rules for power grid use to prioritize renewable electricity generation over coal-fired electricity generation. In 2023, Japan’s government announced that all new coal-fired power plants must have emission reduction measures in place.
Japan plans to close or suspend around 90% of the existing coal-fired power plants that have been deemed inefficient. EIA mentioned, that the country had developed approximately 100 facilities. However, specifics regarding these criteria and a list of coal plants that are considered inefficient have not been made public, including older plants that use lower-efficiency subcritical or higher-efficiency supercritical technologies.
EIA reported, “Based on such a cutoff, we assess the 100 oldest facilities (approximately 24 gigawatts [GW] of coal-fired capacity) that could close or suspend operations. This policy is expected to reduce Japan’s total installed coal capacity by about 40%. Only 1.2 GW of new coal capacity is currently under construction.”
It added, “Two proposals are being considered to help keep up to 12 GW of existing coal-fired capacity operational after 2030. They include adding 20% or more ammonia to the coal supply or blending 25% or more wood pellets into the coal boilers to help lower CO2 emissions and keep the plants open. The wood pellet program is well underway, but the use of ammonia is still being tested.”
